Into the Fire Horse Year: Vietnam's Institutional Reset and the Road to 2030
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TABLE OF CONTENT
2025 marked a decisive shift in Viet Nam’s operating environment, combining large-scale institutional restructuring with an elevated pace of law-making and new mechanisms intended to accelerate implementation and address regulatory bottlenecks. With the XIV National Party Congress setting the medium-term policy direction for the new term, the focus as 2026 begins is expected to move from institutional design to delivery.
2025: Key developments shaping the operating environment
State apparatus restructuring and two-tier local government
2025 saw sustained implementation of a programme to streamline the state apparatus, including significant territorial reorganisation and adjustments to the local-government model, most notably the move to a two-tier structure with the district level removed, and consolidation at the central level through the merger and reallocation of functions among certain ministries. Reported mergers included, among others, the combination of the Ministries of Planning and Investment with Finance, Transport with Construction, and Agriculture and Rural Development with Natural Resources and Environment, alongside other institutional adjustments. The National Assembly’s Resolution No. 202/2025/QH15 (12 June 2025) approved the reorganisation of provincial-level administrative units, reducing the number of provinces and centrally run cities from 63 to 34. The Law on Organisation of Local Government (Law No. 65/2025/QH15; effective 1 July 2025) provides the statutory basis for a revised local-government framework, and its rollout is expected to have practical effects on licensing, land administration, dispute handling, and the routing of regulatory approvals during the transition.
Strategic policy resolutions and acceleration of the legislative programme
A set of Politburo resolutions reinforced strategic priorities for national development, including science and technology and national digital transformation (Resolution No. 57-NQ/TW, 22 December 2024), international integration (Resolution No. 59-NQ/TW, 24 January 2025), innovation in law-making and law enforcement (Resolution No. 66-NQ/TW, 30 April 2025), and private-sector development (Resolution No. 68-NQ/TW, 4 May 2025). In parallel, legislative throughput accelerated across 2025 and culminated at the National Assembly’s 10th Session with a package reported as 51 laws and 8 resolutions (see item 4 below). The combination of strategic direction and legislative volume increases the importance of monitoring implementing decrees, circulars, and enforcement guidance.
Constitutional amendments underpinning institutional change
On 16 June 2025, the National Assembly adopted Resolution No. 203/2025/QH15 amending and supplementing selected provisions of the 2013 Constitution. The amendments were positioned as supporting institutional reorganisation and governance reform, including the legal basis for streamlining and re-allocating functions within the public sector. Their practical consequences depend on follow-on implementing statutes and the way authority is delegated across levels of government/ administrative apparel.
Record legislative output at the National Assembly’s 10th Session
Vietnam’s 15th National Assembly concluded its 10th Session on 11 December 2025 with a large legislative package—51 laws and 8 resolutions—reported as roughly 30% of the current term’s legislative output. Notable examples include the Law on Artificial Intelligence (Law No. 134/2025/QH15; effective 1 March 2026), the Law on Digital Transformation (Law No. 148/2025/QH15; effective 1 July 2026), and the Law on E‑Commerce (Law No. 122/2025/QH15; effective 1 July 2026). The breadth of this programme increases the practical importance of implementing instruments and transitional provisions, particularly where compliance obligations are phased in over 2026.
Launch of the National Legal Portal and move toward single-window legal access
The launch of the National Legal Portal (phapluat.gov.vn) consolidated access to legal texts and introduced digital functions for consultation, feedback on draft instruments, and legal Q&A. This development points toward a more centralised channel for monitoring new instruments, tracking implementing guidance, and engaging with consultation processes. Its operational value will depend on the completeness of the database, update frequency, and consistency of postings across ministries and local authorities.
Macroeconomic performance and investment resilience amid external shocks
Official statistics reported GDP growth of about 8.0% in 2025, with inflation remaining below 4%, indicating continued macro stability despite trade-policy volatility and climate-related disruptions. Reported realised foreign direct investment remained strong by regional standards, supporting Vietnam’s position as a key destination for manufacturing and services. Policy messaging increasingly referenced both traditional drivers and newer growth engines, including the digital and green economy and large infrastructure works (see item 12 below).
Capital-market upgrading and renewed attention to market infrastructure
Public reporting indicated renewed progress toward international capital-market upgrading and related reforms to market infrastructure, transparency, and investor access. In particular, FTSE Russell announced in September 2025 that Viet Nam would be reclassified from Frontier Market status to Secondary Emerging Market, with the reclassification scheduled to take effect in September 2026 and an interim review indicated for March 2026. Such milestones often prompt secondary reforms in disclosure, custody and settlement, market data, and enforcement expectations. For issuers and investors, the practical relevance lies in the implementing measures that follow and the degree of regulatory consistency in application.
Establishment of the Vietnam International Financial Centre framework
In late 2025, Vietnam announced an International Financial Centre model with “one centre, two destinations” (Ho Chi Minh City and Da Nang), supported by Government Decree No. 323/2025/ND-CP. The framework signals an intent to develop a differentiated regulatory and dispute-resolution environment for cross-border financial services and capital markets. The ultimate impact will depend on implementing rules, supervisory practice, and the interaction with existing sector regulators and courts.
Expanded special mechanisms for Ho Chi Minh City and Da Nang
The National Assembly amended the pilot “special mechanisms” for Ho Chi Minh City and Da Nang (Resolutions No. 260/2025/QH15 and No. 259/2025/QH15, respectively). The revised frameworks contemplate wider flexibility in urban management, investment procedures, and the organisation of certain development zones, including Da Nang’s free trade zone concept. Practical significance is expected to turn on local implementation capacity and alignment with sector regulators and national planning rules.
The Hanoi Convention: a new multilateral baseline on cybercrime cooperation
Vietnam hosted the opening for signature of the United Nations Convention against Cybercrime in Hanoi on 25 October 2025. As a global treaty intended to establish shared standards for cooperation on preventing, investigating, and prosecuting cybercrime, it points to a strengthening baseline for evidence sharing and cross-border requests. Longer-term relevance will lie in ratification status, implementation in domestic procedure, and how safeguards are applied in practice.
The Law on Data enters into force and data governance tightens
Vietnam’s Law on Data (Law No. 60/2024/QH15) took effect on 1 July 2025, introducing a consolidated framework for data governance, including principles for data processing, protections, and state-led initiatives such as the National Data Centre. The law is expected to drive additional subordinate legislation on cross-border data flows, data-market development, and compliance interfaces with cybersecurity and privacy regimes. For digital and regulated sectors, it adds another layer to compliance mapping and risk management.
Infrastructure build-out and logistics connectivity milestones
2025 saw continued delivery across transport infrastructure, including progress on expressways, airport capacity expansion, and strategic rail initiatives, alongside increased use of digital tools in traffic management. These programmes typically trigger accompanying legal workstreams—land clearance, procurement, PPP structuring, and technical standards—that can materially affect project bankability and timelines. Implementation capacity and coordination between levels of government remain key determinants of delivery.
Institutional reinforcement in dispute processes, forensics and enforcement
Policy measures in 2025 placed renewed emphasis on the quality and consistency of judicial appraisal and asset valuation in proceedings, including the Politburo’s Directive No. 54-CT/TW dated 30 November 2025. In parallel, the civil-judgment enforcement system underwent organisational restructuring toward a more streamlined model. These steps align with broader enforcement priorities and may influence dispute timelines, evidentiary practices, and asset recovery dynamics.
Trade-policy recalibration with the United States amid “reciprocal tariff” pressure
In 2025, Vietnam navigated a period of trade-policy uncertainty following the United States’ introduction of “reciprocal” tariff measures, including an initially announced 46% rate on Vietnamese goods and subsequent adjustments following negotiations and pauses applicable to multiple jurisdictions. Public materials released by the United States and Vietnamese authorities described negotiations spanning tariffs, rules of origin, customs facilitation, and investment and supply-chain commitments. The episode underscored the importance of origin compliance, documentation, and customs-risk management for export-oriented sectors.
Real estate: targeted mechanisms to unlock stalled projects and restore development pipeline
In 2025, a set of targeted instruments was used to address long-stalled real estate projects, including Resolution No. 171/2024/QH15 (piloting commercial housing development via land-use rights agreements), Resolutions No. 170/2024/QH15 and 265/2025/QH15 (special mechanisms to resolve difficulties for real estate projects), and Government Resolution No. 17/NQ-CP (implementation measures for delayed and long-standing projects). Collectively, these measures were designed to clarify pathways for land-right negotiations and reduce procedural bottlenecks that have historically delayed implementation, with early application reported in major urban centres, including Ho Chi Minh City. Public communications also indicated that further amendments to the Housing Law and the Real Estate Business Law were being signalled for 2025–2026, with policy objectives commonly framed around transparency, market order, and housing supply.
Corporate income tax: new CIT law, SME graduated rates, expanded taxpayer perimeter, and revised foreign capital transfer taxation
The National Assembly adopted the Law on Corporate Income Tax No. 67/2025/QH15, effective 1 October 2025 and applicable to the 2025 tax period, maintaining the standard 20% CIT rate while introducing graduated preferential rates for smaller enterprises based on annual revenue (reported as 15% for revenue up to VND 3 billion and 17% for revenue above VND 3 billion up to VND 50 billion). The law also expands the taxpayer perimeter to include certain foreign digital and e-commerce platforms supplying goods/services into Viet Nam, reflecting an increased focus on tax administration in the digital economy. Separately, from 15 December 2025, changes were introduced for foreign corporate investors’ taxation on certain share/capital transfers, moving (in specified cases) from 20% on net gains to a deemed 2% on gross transfer proceeds, with the stated aim of simplifying the tax basis and reducing documentation dependence for those transactions.
The 14th National Party Congress as an implementation mandate
Against this backdrop, the 14th National Party Congress (January 2026) framed the next phase as one of execution and measurable delivery. Public reporting on the Congress’s resolution highlighted headline targets for 2026–2030, including GDP growth averaging at least 10% per year, GDP per capita around USD 8,500 by 2030, and a digital-economy share of about 30% of GDP, alongside an emphasis on industrial upgrading and productivity growth.
From an operating-environment perspective, these targets are likely to be pursued through continued institutional streamlining and delegation, accelerated issuance of implementing instruments under the large 2024–2025 legislative package, and targeted pilots or “special mechanisms” in priority sectors and locations. The practical impact will depend on the coherence, timing, and enforceability of subordinate legislation, and on the consistency of application across ministries and local authorities.
2026 outlook:
Key consequences and themes to watch
From policy architecture to enforceable rules.
2026 is likely to be characterised by intensive secondary legislation as ministries translate the 2025 legislative package into decrees, circulars, standards, and enforcement guidance. The law‑making reform agenda under Resolution No. 66-NQ/TW, together with the National Assembly’s “breakthrough” mechanism for law-making and implementation (Resolution No. 197/2025/QH15) and the special mechanism to address legal “bottlenecks” (Resolution No. 206/2025/QH15), suggests continued focus on simplification, conflict resolution between instruments, and faster rollout of implementing rules.
Rebalancing the private and state sectors.
Resolution No. 68-NQ/TW positions private enterprise as a core growth engine, while Resolution No. 79-NQ/TW (6 January 2026) emphasises the state economic sector as a central component of the socialist‑oriented market economy and a driver of strategic capacity. The interaction of these tracks may be reflected in SOE governance reforms, competitive conditions in strategic sectors, and the design of investment, procurement, and industrial-policy instruments.
Digital governance and a dense implementation pipeline.
The Law on Data (No. 60/2024/QH15) is already in force, and 2026 is expected to bring additional statutes into effect in the digital and technology space, including the Law on Digital Technology Industry (No. 71/2025/QH15; effective 1 January 2026) and the Law on Artificial Intelligence (No. 134/2025/QH15; effective 1 March 2026), ahead of the Digital Transformation and E‑Commerce laws in mid‑2026. The main compliance pressure in 2026 is likely to come from implementing rules on data governance, AI risk management, digital-platform obligations, and cross-border operational controls.
Tax administration and the digital economy.
Private‑sector support measures adopted by the National Assembly in 2025 (Resolution No. 198/2025/QH15) are being operationalised through subordinate instruments, including Government Decree No. 20/2026/ND-CP and related guidance. Separately, Ministry of Finance Circular No. 69/2025/TT-BTC (effective 1 July 2025) details VAT and tax administration obligations for foreign suppliers and e‑commerce platforms without a permanent establishment, reinforcing the direction of travel toward more comprehensive digital-economy tax administration.
Energy transition, DPPA implementation, and the carbon-market roadmap.
Government Decree No. 57/2025/ND-CP (3 March 2025) updates the direct power purchase agreement (DPPA) framework, creating a clearer legal channel for eligible customers to purchase electricity directly from renewable generators. Government Decree No. 119/2025/ND-CP (9 June 2025) updates the carbon-market regulatory framework and sets a staged roadmap for establishing and operating a carbon market; implementation will interact with greenhouse-gas inventory obligations and sectoral decarbonisation policy.
Trade compliance and supply-chain transparency as persistent themes.
Following the 2025 “reciprocal tariff” episode with the United States and the subsequent joint framework announcement, compliance attention in 2026 is likely to remain focused on rules of origin, customs valuation, anti‑circumvention risk, and supply-chain documentation. In parallel, stronger cross-border cooperation on cybercrime under the UN Convention against Cybercrime may increase the likelihood and speed of cross-border evidence and information requests affecting digital operations.
Large-scale infrastructure: structuring and delivery risks.
The infrastructure programme will continue to generate legal complexity across land, procurement, PPP, and project finance. For major national projects such as the North–South high‑speed railway, the National Assembly’s Resolution No. 172/2024/QH15 provides the investment policy basis, while implementation will rely on detailed feasibility work, financing design, and procurement structuring. Risk allocation, timetable discipline, and the interaction with land and environmental approvals are likely to remain central issues.
